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Cybersecurity Research
  1. A Study of Recidivism Among Online Sexual Predators

A Study of Recidivism Among Online Sexual Predators

Since the development of internet communication platforms and social media, the online sexual predation of minors has affected as much as an estimated 19 percent of the undereighteen-years-old population. 1 Online victimization against minors includes, but is not limited to, online sexual solicitation, sexual harassment, production and distribution of child pornography, and other illegal affronts against persons under the age of eighteen. 2 Furthermore, it is estimated that as many as 13.4 percent of sexual offenders commit multiple offenses, making recidivism an important topic of study. 3 These data suggest that analyzing the intersection of online sexual offense and recidivism may be a crucial area of study due to the devastating impact these offenses have on human lives. Research suggests that online sexual predation may lead to a number of victim symptom sequelae, including severe trauma, anxiety and depressive symptoms, substance abuse, interpersonal difficulty, eating disorders, suicidal ideation, and other social-emotional challenges. 4 Furthermore, as many as 96 percent percent of children who experience online victimization experience victimization offline as well, compounding the gravity of online victimization statistics. 5

In a 2015 study, researcher George Palermo reported an overall sexual offense recidivism rate of 13.4 percent, which included a 12.7 percent recidivism rate specifically among child molesters. 6 These data are not specific to online sexual offenses and suggest that it is not uncommon for sexual offenders to commit multiple offenses, even when they have previously been caught, tried, and convicted. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (2019) reports that within nine years of release from prison, sex offenders are less likely than other types of offenders to get arrested, but “more likely than other types of offenders to be arrested for rape and sexual assault.” 7 In contrast to the findings of Palermo, The Bureau of Justice Statistics found that sexual offenders had a 67 percent probability of re-offending. 8 A notable gap in the literature is a specific measure of recidivism rates among the specific sub-population of study, internet sexual offenders targeting minors. Although there is not parity in the data on recidivism rates, it is uniformly clear throughout the literature that recidivism is not an unlikely outcome of imprisonment and is therefore a topic that requires further analysis.

The present study seeks to identify predictive factors of recidivism among online sexual predators who have offended against minors. The data analyzed in this report is taken from a representative national survey examining the frequency and characteristics of online criminal sexual offenses against minors in 2012. Ultimately, the study seeks to contribute to a robust body of literature aimed at identifying predictive factors of online sexual recidivism.

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