2 Existing Vehicle and Infrastructure Status
This section reviews the current status of the U.S. PEV market and EVSE infrastructure.
2.1 Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market Analysis
The PEV market has experienced significant growth over the last few years, with more than 2 million PEVs on the road globally and more than 500,000 in the United States alone (IEA 2017). IHS Markit (formerly R.L. Polk & Co.) LDV registration data are used in this report to inform geographical disaggregation of PEV adoption in the United States (IHS Markit 2017). This rich data set yields numerous insights into the composition of the PEV stock, its geographical distribution, and its temporal evolution. Out of the approximate 266 million light-duty vehicles registered in the United States in 2016, 239,000 were BEVs and 261,000 were PHEVs (IHS Markit 2017).
Policy support has been a strong driver for PEV adoption in the United States, as shown in Figure 2 by the significantly higher share of PEVs in the “ZEV states” (California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont), which require automakers to sell a certain proportion of ZEVs (PEVs and fuel-cell electric vehicles) (California Air Resources Board 2017).
Figure 2. Distribution of all 2016 registrations of LDVs, HEVs, and PEVs in the United States by state ZEV status
(IHS Markit 2017)
While PEV model availability is still limited compared to conventional gasoline vehicles, 30 PEV models were available in the U.S. market at the end of 2016, covering a range of body styles and sizes. Although early PEVs were mainly small hatchbacks and sedans, such as the Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Volt, SUVs such as the Tesla Model X and BMW X5—and even vans such as the Chrysler Pacifica—are now available. This trend will help make PEVs more attractive to customers across several segments. Likewise, longer-range BEVs such as the Chevrolet Bolt (with 238 miles of battery-only range) will appeal to consumers who were previously deterred by the limited range of BEVs. Figure 3 shows the composition of the existing U.S. PEV stock. The Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf are the most popular models in the PHEV and BEV segments, respectively, but several other models account for significant market shares.
Figure 3. Composition of 2016 U.S. PEV stock
(IHS Markit 2017)
PEV registrations, shown in Figure 4, appear to be concentrated in cities (91% of existing PEV registrations are located in cities) with the remainder distributed in towns and rural areas. This disparity is partially driven by a larger population in urban areas (71% of Americans live in cities with populations of 50,000 people or more), but lower PEV adoption in towns and rural areas is also the result of a lack of charging infrastructure combined with lower consumer awareness, lower availability of PEV models, and higher requirements for longer-distance trips.
Figure 4. Distribution of all 2016 registrations of LDVs, HEVs, and PEVs in the United States by area
(IHS Markit 2017)
Table 2 reports the number of LDV registrations aggregated by urban area for the top 10 U.S. PEV markets. California leads the nation, with six of the top 10 PEV urban area markets. Yet, the overall PEV penetration remains modest, with only four major urban areas exceeding 1% LDV market share. Two of the top 10 urban areas, Concord, California, and Mission Viejo – Lake Forest – San Clemente, California, have populations under 1 million, but have a higher number of PEVs registered than Chicago, which is 10 times larger in terms of population. This may be explained by the demographics of these areas (including high average income) and significant policy support in California, including the ZEV mandate and financial incentives offered by the state—$2,500 for BEVs and $1,500 for PHEVs—on top of the $7,500 federal tax rebate (Clean Vehicle Rebate Project 2017). These numbers also highlight the clustering effect, or neighbor effect, in PEV adoption, where a high existing concentration of PEVs and EVSE increases the awareness and attractiveness of PEVs in the surrounding area (Kahn and Vaughn 2009). Atlanta stands out as the most BEV-leaning market in the country, which can be traced back to a generous state incentive of $5,000, which ended in the summer of 2015. Elimination of this incentive (and introduction of a $200 road tax) may help explain the 8% year-on-year drop in PEV stock in Atlanta.
Table 2. Top 10 U.S. Urban Areas by PEV Stock, 2016 (IHS Markit 2017) 
2.2 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Availability
According to the DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center Station Locator, as of June 2017 there were approximately 16,000 PEV charging stations with 43,000 charging plugs nationwide (DOE 2017b), where a station is defined as a location with one or more individual plugs for PEV charging. L2 chargers are the most commonly installed type, accounting for approximately 80% of the installed plugs (DOE 2017b). Table 3 summarizes the public EVSE characteristics of the top 10 urban PEV markets including the number of plugs per 1,000 PEVs (existing public charging capacity) and stations per 1,000 square miles (existing public charging coverage). Although these top 10 urban areas typically feature public charging capacity and coverage above the national average, significant variability exists. For example, the Mission Viejo–Lake Forest–San Clemente urban area in California currently supports the nation’s ninth largest PEV market with relatively low public charging capacity and coverage. Additional summaries of public EVSE networks are included in Appendix A.
Table 3. EVSE Characteristic of the Top 10 U.S. Urban PEV Markets, 2017 (DOE 2017b) 